Nadal is still the favorite but Sascha & Thiem cannot be written off

The French Open has become a little more interesting now.  At last there is someone else besides Rafa who has won a Masters 1000 on clay this year!  Not that Rafa is still not the favorite but he is not the absolute favorite anymore and there are others who could give him a run for the trophy now.

Basically the field now comprises of Nadal, and the others who could deprive Nadal of a record 10th La Coupe des Mousquetaires.  The other contenders who stand more than a remote chance now are Novak, Thiem, Wawarinka and Zverev, and we can even throw in Murray in that fray assuming he can shape up and somehow manage to reach the 2^nd week there.  Of course all are not equal in the list of those who could win the French Open, as some are more equal than the others.

Rafael Nadal

He has dominated the clay season this year and, but for his one loss to Thiem a few days ago, would have had a 100% win record on the red surface for 2017.  He is back at those crazy levels which have won him nine Roland Garros titles so far and he is by far the best on clay ever.  He should win the French Open this year too unless one of the spoilers can have a super amazing day while playing Nadal because nothing less than a super-amazing performance, with a whole lot of luck mixed in there, will suffice to topple Nadal in a five setter on clay this year.

Dominic Thiem

Has had an amazing clay season with 17-4 win loss record this year.  He is the only conqueror of Nadal on clay in 2017 and if he had backed that up with a better performance, instead 6-1, 6-0 loss, in the very next match against Djokovic his stock would have gone up quite high and inched closer to Nadal’s in the probables for the French Open trophy.  However, he still would be one of the top 3 favorites to with the Roland Garros this year. By his own admission he has some problems with Djokovic’s game but those are realities which must be overcome to win slams and Thiem is quite capable of coming up with the goods when absolutely required, and he proved it in his masterful conquest of Nadal in Rome where he, contrary to his habit and style, played inside or closer to the baseline to take time away from Nadal.

Alexander Zverev

He just won his first Masters 1000 trophy on clay by beating Djokovic who had decimated the likes of Thiem, Del Potro and Agut in preceding matches.  Sascha has evolved over the last 30 days as a tennis player and if he can carry that confidence into the French Open then I’d rank his chances slightly better than Thiem’s and he definitely also qualifies as one of the top three favorites, after Nadal, to win the Garros this year.  And, if Sascha wins the Garros then that would be proof positive that the era of the big three has now run its course, and from thereon it’d be the ageless Federer and the young guns for perhaps another 2 years, and thereafter even Federer would be relegated to the pages of tennis history.  The old order will change and give way to the new.

Novak Djokovic

Novak showed some signs of life by reaching the finals but was then quite easily tamed by Sascha in the finals.  The jury is still out on concluding whether he is back or not.  However, if he manages to reach the quarters at the French Open then he stands a chance to win it all.   A champion of his stature cannot just be written off, and his loss in Madrid to Nadal would work in his favor by taking that extra pressure off of him and allowing him to focus on the match better.  Novak actually stands a better chance of beating Nadal than Nadal beating Djokovic if they meet anytime after the quarter final stages at the French Open.  However, Djokovic needs to first make it to the quarters.  Another positive going into the French would be the access to insight and wisdom of Agassi, and we have seen how Novak has a tendency to make an extended winning run with a super-coach on his team!

Andy Murray

He is still the number one and is making a concerted effort to get his form back for the clay slam.  Will he be able to discover that lost form in time?   Andy has a remote shot at the title but a lot has to work in his favor for him to make it to the semi-final stages.  However, if he make it to the semi-finals and doesn’t have to play either Nadal or Wawarinka there, then Murray may win it all.

Stanislas Wawarinka

Stan has had a lousy clay season this year but he would be a real threat to Nadal or just about anyone else as long as he reaches the semi-finals.  If Stan reaches the semi-finals then all bets, including on Nadal, are off and he would be my super-favorite to win the tournament with or without Nadal on the other side of the net.  But will Stan be even able to make it to the second week this time around?